Will New Hampshire Vote for Donald Trump in the 2020 US Election?

Introduction

New Hampshire has often been seen as a key battleground state in the United States presidential elections. The 2020 election cycle is no exception, with Donald Trump actively campaigning in the state. However, the outcome remains uncertain, as New Hampshire has a history of close races and unpredictable voting patterns.

Historical Context and Voting Patterns

Looking at recent election data provides us with important insights into New Hampshire's political leanings. In the 2016 presidential election, the state faced a tight race:

Clinton (D) vs. Trump (R): Clinton won by a narrow margin of 47.62% to 47.25%. Hassan (D) vs. Ayotte (R): Clinton's running mate, Maggie Hassan, won the Senate race with 48.0%, defeating the Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte by 0.2%. Sununu (R) vs. VanOlstern (D): In the gubernatorial race, Chris Sununu (R) secured victory with 48.8%, defeating his Democratic opponent Colin VanOlstern by 2.2 percentage points.

These results indicate a highly divided and competitive political landscape in the state. It's clear that both Democrats and Republicans have had success in various elections, showcasing New Hampshire's fluid political environment.

Current Political Climate

The 2020 election adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Governor Chris Sununu (R), who won re-election in 2016, is facing a challenging race once again. This time, however, he has a Democratic opponent in the form of Colin VanOlstern.

In the Senate race, incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is running for re-election, making this a crucial contest for Democrats. With a Republican running for the Senate seat, the race is expected to be tight.

Factors Influencing the 2020 Election

The 2020 election in New Hampshire is shaped by several key factors:

Historical Voting Patterns: New Hampshire's tendency to have close races suggests that the outcome of the election will mirror the national trend. A narrow margin in New Hampshire often indicates a close national election. Decline of Party Coattails: Unlike in some other states, New Hampshire's voting behavior shows a slight decline in party coattails. While there are no strong party dominance signals, one candidate can still stand out. Local Dynasties: Despite the influence of the Sununu dynasty in state politics, no candidate is guaranteed victory. Factors like candidate character, campaign strategy, and issue politicization play significant roles.

Conclusion and Predictions

Given the complex and fluid nature of New Hampshire's political landscape, making firm predictions is challenging. However, based on historical data and current trends, it is likely that New Hampshire's results will reflect the national electoral climate.

If Donald Trump manages to win New Hampshire, it will almost certainly signal a strong trend in favor of the Republican candidate nationally. On the other hand, a Democratic victory here could indicate a broader shift in voter sentiment.

It's important to monitor the New Hampshire race closely. As of now, the state's political atmosphere remains highly unpredictable, making it a vital but difficult state to call in the 2020 US election.