Lebanon’s Greatest Threat: Syria or Israel

The question of which country poses the greater threat to Lebanon is a complex one, often debated and analyzed in terms of geopolitical and historical contexts. While Hezbollah in Lebanon has been embroiled in conflicts with Israel, the ongoing concerns about Syria’s claims and actions in Lebanon, coupled with Israel’s persistent disruptions and occupation, add layers of complexity.

Understanding the Context

Lebanon, a country with a rich history and a delicate balance of religious and political power, finds itself at the center of regional conflicts. While Syria is currently more engaged in direct military and political actions in Lebanon, Israel's historical policies and current actions present significant challenges for Lebanon. The article examines the threats from both Syria and Israel and highlights the unique ways in which each presents challenges to Lebanon.

Syria's Threat to Lebanon

Syria claims Lebanon’s territory, historically asserting that they have a legacy of connection dating back to the Ottoman Empire. However, this claim has not materialized in practical terms because Lebanon and Jordan both benefit from Israel's security umbrella. Should Syria decide to take action, Lebanon, alongside Jordan, might experience a renewed militarization similar to the 1950s, 60s, 70s, and 80s, when such scenarios were indeed plausible.

Israel’s Threat to Lebanon

Israel, on the other hand, is often viewed as a greater threat due to several factors. First, Israel has a history of occupying Lebanese territory, including Shebaa Farms, Kafarchooba hills, and the Lebanese side of Al-Gajar village. Additionally, Israel's consistent border incursions have raised concerns about security and sovereignty. In a single month, Israel crossed into Lebanese territory up to 150 times through planes, soldiers, and border kidnappings, contributing to a sense of insecurity among Lebanese citizens.

Furthermore, Israel’s influence in the region is significant, with visits from U.S. senators and lobbyists pushing for more land annexation. While the Lebanese government and civil society groups have protested these actions, the U.S. often overshadows these complaints, adding to the complex geopolitical dynamics.

Lebanon’s Defense and Missiles

Despite the historical occupation from Syria, Lebanon has developed its own missile program using its resources and brainpower. These missiles, known as the Cedar Rocket series, represent a significant advancement in Lebanon's security capabilities. However, international pressure, including threats from Britain, has discouraged further development, citing concerns over the security of neighboring Israel.

The Cedar Rocket project has faced political and economic challenges, with international sanctions looming if development continues. The situation underscores the delicate balance Lebanon must navigate between self-defense and regional tensions.

Conclusion

Both Syria and Israel present significant challenges to Lebanon, each in their own way. While Syria's claims to Lebanon's territory and regional assertiveness are cause for concern, Israel's direct occupation, persistent border violations, and geopolitical influence make it a more immediate threat. The complex interplay of historical, geopolitical, and security factors means that Lebanon must continue to navigate these threats carefully, balancing self-defense with the need for regional stability and peace.